Historical patterns and sustainability implications of worldwide bicycle ownership and use

Abstract Bicycles are widely recognized as an effective solution for reducing short-distance trip-related climate impacts and addressing sedentary lifestyle-caused chronic diseases. Yet, the historical patterns of global bicycle production, trade, stock, use remain poorly characterized, preventing thorough investigation its role in sustainable road transport transition. Here, based on a dynamic model various data sources, we have compiled, to our knowledge, first dataset ownership by country from 1962 2015. Our comparison between development per-capita car reveals five varying types S-curve among different countries. High does not necessarily lead high use, which is instead still marginal daily trips worldwide (<5% most countries). A pro-bicycle policy infrastructure enabled modal shift like Netherlands Denmark can significant untapped health benefits.